Awakenings (al Anbar et al)

Robin Williams and Robert De Niro in the 1990 film, Awakenings.

Sheik Abdul al-Rishawi, the founder of the Awakening Councils, was assassinated in September 2007.

In the 1990 film, Awakenings, neurologist Dr. Malcolm Sayer (played by Robin Williams) discovers what at first appears to be a miracle cure in the drug L-DOPA. L-DOPA "awakens" patients of a sleeping sickness rendered comatose for decades. Suddenly, these men and women who were thought to be little more than vegetables are awakened from their long slumber.

There is a moment, a brief glimpse of hope in this film, as the patients experience life once again, a short, fierce sense of joy. The drug works miraculously. And then it starts to slip. Leonard Lowe, played by Robert De Niro, is the focus of the story. He transforms slowly from fully "awakened" into an increasingly dysfunctional state, as his physical abilities begins to diminish. This physical withdrawal is accompanied by a descent into rage, hopelessness, and in the end, resignation. One by one the patients are taken off the drug, and slip once again into a perpetual sleep.

The Awakening Councils

In 2005 the sheiks of al Anbar Province in Iraq began what has since been termed the Anbar Awakening. Sheik Abdul al-Rishawi formed the Anbar Awakening Council, the first and most prominent in a series of Sunni tribal coalitions whose aim was to ally themselves to the United States forces in an attempt to kill or force al Qaeda and other terrorist groups in Iraq out of that country. This alliance was born from the ashes of both a failed US strategy and the overly aggressive tactics of al Qaeda in Iraq. Essentially, the sheiks had become fed up with their guests, who ended up killing far fewer Americans than Iraqis.

Indeed, Abdul al-Rishawi was assassinated two years later, though his cause and the cause of all the Awakening movements continued beyond his death.

These Awakenings were largely funded by the US Government, and coincided to some extent with three important events in Iraq. The first was the promotion of General David Petraeus to the top job in Iraq, and the Army's subsequent adoption of a modern counter-insurgency strategy there. The second was the surge in troops authorized by Washington.

The third event is less measurable, and coincided directly with the rise of both Sunni and Shiite militias. What has happened over the past few years has been the voluntary ethnic relocation of Iraqis into their own ethno-religious regions. Sunnis have migrated into Sunni areas, Shiites into their own neighborhoods. Tension remains, but the visceral, daily contact between subgroups has diminished. It is reminiscent of Jerusalem before and after the 1948 war, as Jews and Arabs began to sequester themselves off from one another. Peacefulness ensued, if not peace.

It is likely that the Awakenings along with the continous ethnic relocation during that period warrant greater credit for rising security in Iraq than American efforts such as the Surge, though it could also be argued that they never have worked so well had the US not adopted the Petraeus counter-insurgency approach. Essentially there was a great meeting of minds and will that led to what can now be described as a delicate stability in Iraq, a tenous calm. Indeed, US forces can safely say that they are at least on the road to victory (in some sense) in the country that only a year ago seemed a doomed quagmire, expensive and futile and foolhardy.

Now we have a glimpse of what stability may look like in Iraq. The government there has flexed its muscle at least a little, clamping down on Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army with US assistance, and asserting itself as more than just a US puppet. Iraqi Security forces are better trained and equipped, and more importantly, more confident than at any point during the US occupation.

Perpetual Sleep

They are so confident, in fact, that the predominantly Shiite Iraqi Government has proposed disbanding the Sunni Awakening councils altogether, and though they promise to incorporate up to a quarter of the members into regular Iraqi Security forces, that leaves a potential 75,000 armed, trained militia fighters out of a job. When Dr. Sayer's patients found themselves suddenly losing their newfound power they experienced hopelessness and rage. If this Awakening should falter, or be actively suppressed, I wonder what sort of rage might be felt on the streets of Baghdad, and through al Anbar and beyond?

Already the Iraqi Government has begun to crack down on the Awakening councils, arresting some members, and attempting to disarm or disenfranchise others. One might see this as a natural progression from militia-rule to centralized Government. Another might see this as sectarian politics, with the Shiite majority doing its best to hold on to as much power as possible.

The US is now planning a drawdown of troops. This is a good thing. While there is no possibility of withdrawing completely from Iraq in the near or even distant future, it has become apparent that the Iraqi Government can do more on its own behalf. Whether the choices it makes will be wise is another question, but it is without a doubt beyond American control. We wisely paid the salaries of thousands of Sunni fighters, and thy drove out al Qaeda. If the Iraqi Government will not do the same, what can the United States do to stop them?

The Surge made the counter-insurgency possible. The vision of General Petraeus coincided perfectly with the brave and sensible actions of the Sunni tribes. Security is possible. We can see it on the horizon, and behind it somewhere well out of sight is that elusive peace we once believed unattainable.

But is it all an illusion? Has this all been little more than the effects of a miracle drug soon to wear off, leaving the country in the same sad state it was in two or three years ago? The threat of civil war still looms like a black cloud above everything, far more visible, more tangible than that will o' the wisp, peace.

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